It looks obvious

Listening to the news, these days, expose the listeners to constant spin of what the voting trends actually mean and why one candidate is still viable. In this constant attempt to create the desired presumptions we are sometimes forgeting that the arguments made by the different campaigns aren’t that smart. Thanks to good satire for reminding us what stupid this kind of spins usually are. 

Yesterday at a conversation with friends I speculated that It doesn’t make sense for Romney to quite the race now. I suggested that he has fairly good chances at a brokered convention as a compromise between Huckabee and McCain and that he enjoy the support of the Party’s establishment which is a big advantage in such event. It seems to me that the chances for a brokered convention are also pretty high with four candidates still running, and with McCain needing about 400 delegates from about 1000 possible delegates.

Today’s news prove my speculation, again, wrong. Oh, well…

Is it really?

I’ll miss Dennis and I think that the Presidential campaign is lacking without him. Although I disagree with big portion of his agenda I’ll always remember fondly his answer for why he voted against the Patriot Act: “Because I read it!”.

Fred Thompson’s dropping from the Presidential race was expected and unfortunate. It is unfortunate that the kind of conservatism - the type that brought Reagan to the White House and the GOP to win the majority doesn’t have enough appeal in the GOP. It will be more unfortunate if Thompson’s dropping will help to solidified a frontrunner next week. I am looking, with a lot of hope, for a brokered convention and a frontrunner isn’t serving this hope.

I said it in the past, and although I have a good record of wrong predictions I still think that regardless of who the GOP will nominate the next President will be a Democrat. The GOP needs to start building itself, defining its core believes and re-pledge its allegiance to the ideals that attracted the American voters to join the Reagan coalition. A brokered convention, and the need to find a compromise candidate can help starting such process. 

But my interest in such convention isn’t only ideological. Think how fascinating and wonderful display of politic a brokered convention is. Today, with the help of Tzvika, I was found the magnificent story of the 1920 GOP brokered convention - were Harding was nominated after ten rounds,after having support of only 6.7% of the delegates in the first round. Such convention will be much more interesting than the staged conventions we saw in previous elections.