It looks obvious

When I read this news report back in April I knew I have to keep it:

Campaigning for his wife in North Carolina, former President Bill Clinton said Wednesday that he’d be “very surprised if oil goes below a hundred dollars a barrel again in my lifetime.”

One this for sure - Mr. Clinton should be very happy that his lifespan is not depended on the public’s memory. It is also telling us something about the quality of market predictions and economy assessment done on the campaign trail, but today we will only enjoy the gotcha feeling

I must provide another short note about Oil prices, with at least the same quality of Clinton’s prediction. Oil price reached its peak the day before I left my job - since than it drop about $50 (about 34%) in a pretty short period. The demand didn’t really changed, the supply is basically the same and dollar is still very weak. The only significant change is the fact that I’m unemployed. Therefore, and since it is important for strong global economy I need to be paid to remain unemployed at all cost!  

It isn’t a bad advice, but I’m not sure he is the right person to give it…

Bill Clinton made a plea yesterday for a new emphasis on monogamy as a key element in the battle against Aids.

[...]

“To pretend we can ever get hold of this without dealing with that – the idea of unprotected sexual relations with unlimited numbers of partners – I think would be naïve,” he said.

It was only natural that a lot of the blame, for Hillary Clinton’s defeat, will be laid on laps of former President Bill Clinton. As the Guardian article mention he was:

delivering one of the most damaging comments of the Clinton campaign, describing Obama’s presidential chances as “a fairytale”. It was seen by many in the African-American community as patronising.

[...]

He made race an issue, fighting a negative campaign. The decision proved to be disastrous. He not only alienated African-Americans at a time when Hillary Clinton was still taking a sizeable share of their votes, but also white Democrats throughout the US, including veteran party figures such as senator Ted Kennedy, who subsequently backed Obama.

This is all true, but unlike the common concept I think that this tactic is what kept Clinton campaign a live. What most people tend to forget is that Bill Clinton used these controversial comments when Hillary’s numbers seems to be in sharp decline. I was in NH just before the Primaries and I remember that the general opinion was that this is the end for her campaign. And while the Clinton campaign used an ugly tactic it was much more beneficial than they get the credit for - it stopped Obama rise, it helped drafting voters for Clinton and create the distinction she needed desperately.

Like many other people, including Clinton herself, I thought that the nomination is her to take. I was wrong because I didn’t realize the Obama phenomena. Obama amazing rising changed the entire game, and I think that the fact that Clinton was able to stay in the race as long as she did, and have a valid claim for the Vice Presidency is due to masterfully campaigning. Some of the credit for it should, no doubt, be given to Bill Clinton.