It looks obvious

I wondered in the past, and I’m still wondering, about Ahmadinejad tactical approach. Assuming that Iran’s and Ahmadinejad strategy was to acquire nuclear capabilities one would assume that the best tactic was to create the least controversy. One can argue that Iran’s effort to acquire nuclear weapon would better served when it appears as more moderate, or at least on the path for moderation.

However, under Ahmadinejad, Iran policy is anything but avoiding conflicts. Moreover,  Ahmadinejad’s speeches and involvement with the more extreme regimes and groups in the Middle East are a source for concern for the international community. Such concerns are likely to lead to increasing international pressure on Iran to stop the nuclear development or to face sanctions and international isolation.

One explanation, rather simplistic, for Ahmadinejad’s policy will to assume that what you see is what you get, or in other words that Iran’s president ideology is leading him in extreme path which he doesn’t care to disclose. Another explanation is that, as many before him, Ahmadinejad try to divert the Iranian people focus from the internal problems - which he is unable to solve, to international struggle. Creating conflicts, or exaggerating existing ones, intend to unite the Iranian with its leadership against the external enemies.  The more likely explanation is probably a combination of both, and the main question is only what is the balance between them.

Hopefully the balance is more on the side of the later explanation. If this is the case, Ahmadinejad and his patrons will have to reconsider their approach. Moreover, policy makers in the west should exploit the internal unrest in Iran in ways that will lead for changes in Iran’s regime. Such consideration should not include changing the threat of war, or military attack, but to include more economical pressure.  And although I don’t believe that regime change will stop Iran’s nuclear plans, it will probably allow it to be in the hand of more reasonable regime.

Technorati Tags: Iran - Ahmadinejad - Syria - Israel - Nuclear Weapons - Hezbullah