It looks obvious

The common wisdom is that so far the international community failed to prevent North Korea from developing nuclear weapons. Furthermore, the alleged nuclear test is a real exam for the UN and is a test case for further nuclear development by North Korea, Iran and others.

While it seems obvious that the failure was in preventing the nuclear development, by diplomatic and if necessary by other means of enforcement, I would suggest that the failure was completely different, but it is still reversible.

What we should have learned from the Pakistan’s nuclear development, and from the Iraqi case as well,  is that it is almost impossible to prevent a determined country from developing nuclear weapon. In fact the development itself isn’t so complicated, It is only difficult because of restrictions on trades of certain materials, and other restrictions. However these restrictions are only good as delay methods and cannot prevent such development completely.

One might raise the Israeli attack on the Iraqi nuclear facility at 1981 as an example of successful prevention. However the attack was only successful in delaying Sadam’s plans and it took at least another war, ten years later, to stop Iraq’s nuclear ambitions. It took at least one war, and tight sanctions regime to put an hold - not a stop, and Sadam’s plans. Can the west afford the same in more places? I seriously doubt that.

Recognizing that the nonproliferation treaty is a dead word isn’t a solution, it is only acceptance of reality. However it should be the base of reevaluation of the west strategy toward countries like North Korea and Iran. I would focus on the Iranian example which is more closer to my interests.

Although Iran’s regime is fundamentalist Islamic regime I would suggest closer examinations of the Iranian national and historical interests rather than the common analysis that suggest that Iran acting to export the Islamic revolution. In fact Iran behavior and strategy can point toward protection of its historical interests and its natural desire to restore its position as regional superpower.

I would also suggest that the Israeli paranoia from the Iranian regime fueled similar paranoia in the Iranian side. However Israel is only minor issue on the Iranian agenda, an excuse and a tool it use skillfully to build its position. In fact Israel and Iran has more interests in common than rivalry and both knew how to do business together when needed.

Iran nuclear ambitions aren’t aim to destroy Israel rather than to provide defense from the Arabs, Russian future expansions - which long history would suggest as possible, and to provide insurance from the neighbors from the east.

Understanding this motivations can be a crane to stabilize the Middle-East, rather than destabilize it. Nuclear deterrence together with Israel’s pull out from the Territories it conquered in 1967, providing the Arab countries the ability to recognize Israel’s borders, can provide the ground for stabilization of borders disputes in the region and the threat on Israel existence.

It would be very unusual if the west would actually use the Iranian nuclear plans to promote peace plan, which seems more realistic rather than fighting the unavoidable.

Technorati Tags: Nuclear weapons - Iran - North Korea - NPT - The UN - Diplomacy