It looks obvious

One has to wonder what cause people to be so delusional to believe that Ron Paul, specifically - not any Libertarian leaning candidate, will win the GOP 2012 nomination:

As far fetched as it sounds, Ron Paul can actually win the Republican nomination in 2012 and change history. Step One: Win the Iowa Straw Poll in 2011.

Even before the public realized the full extent of the current crisis the preferred choices of the American voters were as non-libertarian as you can get. And although I do not think that the current crisis demonstrate, in any way, the philosophical or practical failure of Liberty minded theories, I have to admit that this is general opinion. Ideas of Bailout, Practically nationalization of industries, National Service and other collectivist symptoms seems more favorably to the general public and Ideas that involve less government seems lunatic as best.

So instead of wasting time and energy trying to elect fringe candidate, which will be 76 years old at 2012, we should be focusing on more important things. We should start from the base - build the base of the meetup groups in the colleges to engage with students and present the alternative for collectivism. We should establish grants for essays, for research and for teaching. We should inspire people with ideas much before we start asking for their votes.

Yes, it is not going to effect the 2012 - but so is the winning of the Iowa Straw Poll.