It looks obvious

The Hezbullah leader, Nasrallah, strike me as much more competent leader than the Syrian president. However he is too failing to read the situation correctly. Simply put he is confusing Israel failure to achieve victory in the war as Hezbullah victory.

I hope that I’m wrong, and that his refusal to disarm and to withdrawal is only negotiation tactic . However I have the feeling that he read the Israeli motivation for another round and his organization ability Incorrectly. The Hezbullah made major mistake by changing from guerilla organization to an organized military organization. Therefore it cannot really win, nor to cause real strategic risk to Israel all it can hope is to be able to keep launching rockets as a measure of achievement.

Not that I mind that the Hezbullah will be defeated, on the contrary I will love to see it happen. But such things do not come without heavy price and I would hope that the ceasefire, despite all its weaknesses, will work to achieve better results for Israel and Lebanon.

Link: Hezbollah balks at border disarmament Standoff threatens deployment of Lebanese army