It looks obvious

I was reading the Rasmussen Report about Ron Paul with great interests. After all this is the first time the the famous pollster are running a national survey and trying to analyze the support in Dr. Ron. The results are, somewhat surprisingly, encouraging.

The bottom line of the report is that if Ron Paul was the Republican nominee, and the election would held today, he would loose by a margin of 15%-20%. This should not be shocking to any sane observer of the 2008 Campaign. After all Ron Paul is still a second tier candidate in the Republican pack of candidates, and although he manage to get decent donations the amount of money he can spend is very small compare to the first tier candidates in both parties. However it was just few weeks ago that Ron Paul had no presence at any poll, obviously not a national one. The reason that Rasmussen are running the survey is an indicator by itself that Ron Paul support is increasing and becoming a factor that cannot be ignored.

It is interesting to note that Ron Paul attracting 13%-15% of the democrats. The report tries to associates the democrats support to Ron Paul’s long opposition to the war, however the democratic aren’t lacking candidates that oppose the war so the reason for Ron Paul’s appeal lay somewhere else. I would assume that most of these voters belongs to the group that the Cato institute’s study suggested as the 15% Libertarian leaning voters. Ron Paul’s candidacy, while probably incapable to win the national election - and realistically not even the GOP nomination,  expose the large group of voters that would have like smaller, and much less intrusive, government.

While it would be highly desirable if the majority of the voters would be Libertarian, or Libertarian leaning, in practical terms being the recognizable swing vote isn’t a bad place to be. I suggested before that Ron Paul’s success, even if limited, might force the other candidates in a tied race to adjust their position so they can win Dr. Paul support. The Rasmussen Report might indicate that candidate from both parties might have to adjust their campaign, and their policies, to win the Libertarian leaning swing block.