It looks obvious

One approach when planning an event, project or a military strike is to consider what will be the cost of failure. It is easier to asses what would be the benefits of success but we tend to ignore the questions of what would be the damage in case of failure. Sometime we may decide not to start a project because the risk of failure, and the results of such failure, do not justify the investment.

The war in Iraq is an example of ignoring the the failure cost. Obviously, if the war and its aftermath,   had suspended in building stable democracy in Iraq - the Middle-East would be much better place. However failing to achieve stability and democracy created a situation much worth than if the war has never been fought.

The war in Lebanon at the summer of 2006 is another example of ignoring the cost of failure. Would Israel achieve the goal of bring break the Hezbullah as a fighting force would help the rebuilding of Lebanon and would stabilize a peaceful borders between the two countries. However the failure, this nasty failure that everybody didn’t consider as an option, brought Israel - and the entire region - closer to a bigger, much more dangerous, war.

Immediately after the war I wrote about the seeds of the next war - analyzing the motivation of Syria, the Hezbullah, The Palestinians and even the Iranian behind the scene - to adopt a strategy that will lead to a new war. What I didn’t consider, and I should have, is that Israel might adopt similar approach. The combination of shaky political position of the Prime Minister and the Minister of defense, Injured pride of the military high command and the assessment that the Israel’s deterrence must be restored are strong elements in adopting an aggressive strategy that can lead to the next round of violence.

And what would be a better target than an obvious evil? one that not even trying to hide its true colors? what would be more uniting, more in the heart of the consensus than destroying Iran nuclear plan? In one great military strike we will restore all that we lost in Iraq and Lebanon, The senior officers would shine again and the politicians would restore their favorable public opinion. If only we can repeat the glorious operation that opened the six days war in 1967; one big operation that will force a checkmate (or maybe ayatollah dead…).

But what if not?

What would be the result of failed operation? or even if the operation succeed and delayed the Iranian ambitions for few years? what would be the cost of such operation? And when asking such questions might lead to another question, and what if the Iranian would have a nuclear weapon? is it necessarily bad? I for one don’t think so, would we adopt a different approach.

However it seems like the shaky political position, of both the Israeli Prime-Minister and the American president, being stronger factors than the risk of inevitable failure:

Like the crowd in a Greek tragedy we can only watch how the disaster become unavoidable, but unlike the crowd we will be the one living with the results.

Technorati Tags: Iran - Israel - Nuclear weapon - Military attack - Bush - Olmert - Ahmadinejad - Risk Management - Iraq - Hezbullah - Lebanon